Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Strange

This political season feels very strange. I'm not sure if the normal rules don't apply this year, or if it's that the rules are being ignored. I suspect the latter. For example, Obama's VP choice not only hasn't given him a bounce, it has caused Obama's numbers to drop.




I'm starting to suspect that Obama's poll numbers will have little or no bounce after the Democratic Convention.

I'm guessing that something like 30-50 million Americans have just started closely following the election news. They didn't vote in the primaries, probably because they aren't registered with either party, and have now started the serious business of figuring out which of the two parties has offered up the least sour lemon. They must be amazed at what the Democratic Party has offered: A callow youth with almost no national résumé, whose one serious policy judgement was wrong, and who can't seem to control his own Convention. Closer examination reveals that Obama seems to have been nominated because he's half-Black and reads well off the teleprompter.

All of the Convention coverage I have seen has centered on the question of whether or not the Clintons and their supporters will behave. THIS is why it was such a huge error to allow the Clintons this much air time at the Convention - even if they behave it only means they're good soldiers, not that Obama has the stones to impose his will on them. He's been emasculated whether he realizes it or not.

Contrast this with the Republican nominee: A well-known Senator who has served several terms in Washington, having created at least SOME well-known legislation, who has been very visible on the foreign policy issues of the last decade, and is even known to buck his own party. Added bonus: In Republican fashion, they picked McCain because it's his turn. They don't always do this (see Bush in 2000) but Republicans often enough reward the long-time party stalwarts with a Presidential or VP nomination. This is boring, and often electorally useless, but it has the advantage of picking known commodities. This year, more than any other, this difference with the Democrats is strikingly in the Republican favor.

I'm starting to think that McCain should perhaps be considered the favorite this fall, which is a strange thought indeed.

12 comments:

Pastor_Jeff said...

Think what the poll numbers would look like without the media pulling so hard for Obama. He's got to be getting 5% or more from everyone pulling their punches.

Republicans often enough reward the long-time party stalwarts with a Presidential or VP nomination. This is boring, and often electorally useless...

See entry under: Dole, Bob.

Icepick said...

See entry under: Dole, Bob.

He's who I had in mind.

AnastasiaBeaverhausen said...

Well, here you go again (sound familiar...like another of your Nazi-Republican idols - B as in Bad movie actor and worst president ever reagan)...just admit you don't like change or technology or Obama/Biden or anything that has to do with regular Americans and go back to eating cheetos in your mommy's basement (like Joe Scarborough calls you on Morning Joe)...keep whining and stay away from the voting booths in November...you are not mature enough to vote!

Icepick said...

What's technology got to do with anything?

As for change, the world changes from moment to moment. We know this from quantum mechanics if not from our own experience. Whether Obama is elected or not the world will change.

As for regular Americans, you know goddamned well I've got more in common with "regular Americans" than Obama or Biden. After all, I'm still one of them. Biden might be one of the poorer members of Congress, but he's still making a Senator's salary: $169,300 per year. That's more than I've ever made in a year. (And perhaps we should talk about Michelle Obama's job making $317K per year to make sure poor people don't get healthcare in Chicago.)

AND MY MOTHER'S HOOUSE DOESN'T HAVE A BASEMENT!

Hurricane Heather said...

Yesterday a very opinionated elderly woman called in to the Bud Hedinger Show and alleged that Joe Biden had a black wife. When her claim was doubted, she countered with, "Well, that's what everybody is saying."

Hmmmmmmmm.

AnastasiaBeaverhausen said...

Heather - Biden's first wife was Irish like him and his current wife Jill is also Irish...well, they could be "Black Irish" (ancient Irish with Roman decent like St. Patrick). Isn't it funny what people will believe even when they see her on TV. I like the ones that think Obama is a Muslim because of his name. I am reminded of NY Mayor Fiorello La Guardia, who's mom was Jewish, his dad part Italian and they were Episcopalians!

Outis, chill dudemeister, take some more of Rush's happy pills - I can't help but be a card carrying bleeding heart liberal free market capitalist New Democrat who loves to piss off Republican wankers who forget about all us regular Americans (yes, you are included sans basement :-D ). We have watched our parents try to make a better life for us but they were hurt by republican politics (when my dad became disabled, Reagan became president and immediatly cut and froze SS disability benefits, wiping my parents out and causing my bankruptcy in 1999 from the medical overages not covered - his politics had long lasting effects still being felt today - that is why I curse that man sooooo much!). And aren't you a victim too, fired for no reason and unable to find a good job because of a system of, by and for the corporation! I just believe that enough is enough and it is time for people to come together and start solving problems instead of paying lip service to them. McCain is NOT the person to do that, I think Obama is.

Icepick said...

Outis, chill dudemeister, take some more of Rush's happy pills....

I use different happy pills than Rush. But I knew you were (partially) kidding and I know where you're coming from. I thought the dueling basement comments made it clear that some fun was being had by all.

(Note to others: Anastasia, Heather and I go back a ways, and JustKim is my wife. Anastasia really DOES know that my Mom doesn't have a basement!)

As for Biden's "black" wife - oy vey!

(But I didn't know that La Guardia was a Jewish Episcolpalian!)

Icepick said...

As for my firing - Whilte I defintely got the short end of the stick (and in a very uncomfortable location), they had that right. I don't believe in forced associations. The crappy thing there is that it was bad for me AND bad for the company. (I'm really good at what I do, and they could have used my skills elsewhere.)

But once you get tied up in bureaucracy "middle management" types that know how to game the system can pull all sorts of stunts. This is one of the reasons I dislike the idea of bigger government - it will be just one more bureaucracy that can roll over individuals. (Rather, it IS such a beast already.)

AnastasiaBeaverhausen said...

Outis wrote:

(But I didn't know that La Guardia was a Jewish Episcolpalian!)

I just love his mixed background how people really thought he was Italian (he was only part Italian) and Catholic. It's that name Fiorello (little flower)...he used to read the funnies over the radio during the depression...look him up...I think you will like learning about him, he was a really fascinating character!

Hurricane Heather said...

Anastasia:

Come to the dark side. There is plenty of room on our bandwagon. There's a reason they call us the 'right'.

BTW: I'm a card carrying registered Democrat. Voted for Obama in the primaries. Just to confuse all the liberals. Mr. Heather loves it when they call us up and ask us if they can count on our votes. Yessirreee..... he replies. And then we kill them in the general election.

I love this representative republic of ours!

PS Part 2: - I think Outis will agree with me that perhaps the New Jersey industrial fumes have affected your political sensibilities.

Hurricane Heather said...

Outis:

Did your Mom ever have a basement? I was wondering if it got jacked with the toilet paper?

:)

AnastasiaBeaverhausen said...

Ah Mr. Heather, I live in SOUTH Jersey, the industrial fumes are UP NORTH - we just have beaches infested with medical waste that keeps washing up from NY (?)

I can't ever move back to the RIGHT again, I was there along time ago before I got older and wiser!