Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Polls & Paranoia

I have come to completely distrust the polls. I have no doubt that Obama is ahead right now. I also increasingly suspect that widespread fraud will give Obama an additional point or so in the final outcome, more in some swing states.

But I find it impossible to believe that a man that almost no one had heard of four years ago is about to crush McCain by a popular result that matches what Reagan did to Mondale in 1984. That strains credulity. I'm not sure if the polls are being gamed, or if increasingly diverse forms of telecommunication have ruined the old polling methods, but something isn't right.

Incidentally, the last time someone won an open Presidential election (meaning no incumbent) by that margin was 1928. Somehow that seems appropriate: the winner was Herbert Hoover and I fully expect our next President to have a Hoover-like term.

Aside: Blogger's spell check function finally recognizes both 'Barack' and 'Obama'.

No comments: