Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Where have the voters gone?

I expected that turnout wouldn't be as high as had been predicted. I may be correct. As the totals stand now (see date stamp below) Obama has about 1 million more votes than Bush had in 2004. McCain has about 3 million LESS than Kerry had in 2004. So that's a net loss of 2 million votes from 2004 to 2008.

Other votes cast in 2004 amounted to about 1.2 million votes. I can't find current totals for that, but I doubt those numbers have gone up substantially.

In other words, how is it that some sources are reporting 130 million votes cast when that hasn't shown up in the totals? Over 99% of precincts are reporting, according to the data I can find. Are there really ten million provisional and absentee ballots remaining to be counted?

Aside: Even if the total hits 130 million votes cast, that still isn't that great an increase over 2004 - just a 6.3% increase. Where'd everybody go?

Note that the 64% figure in the linked article can't be correct. According to the FEC, 56.7% of eligible voters cast a ballot in 2004. That was out of an estimated voting age population of 215.7M. For the 64% figure to be correct on 130M votes, the US voting age population would have to be 203.1M. Surely the country hasn't lost over 12.6M voting age citizens in the last four years?

Totals for 2004 can be found here.

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