Wednesday, March 02, 2011

Friday's Unemployment Report - A Prediction

Friday the February UE report comes out. I'm predicting that somehow they will manage to get U-3 down between 8.6% and 8.8%. Mostly this will be achieved by stating that another few hundred thousand people have "dropped out" of the labor force. Which is to say it will be bullshit. More later this week if I can find the time.

UPDATE: Well, I was closer than the consensus, which had the rate rising to 9.1%. But it came in at 8.9%, and surprisingly only 87,000 people were disappeared from the roles. All in all a pretty dismal report.

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