Saturday, March 19, 2011

I was right again - not that it will do me any good.

Well, technically I'm not proven correct yet. But now the CBO has released a report analyzing the President's budget, and they've come to a similar conclusion to mine: Namely that the President's revenue projections will overstate revenue going forward. That means that the President's deficits will be larger than projected. Which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone who has paid any attention at all. I was way ahead of them.

The worst part is that I am certain that a not-very-detailed analysis of the CBO's numbers would show that they too are underestimating the size of the deficit.

I would do a similar look-see at the old CBO numbers from a couple of years ago and see how their projections matched reality, similar to what I did to the President's budget in the earlier post,but I don't see the point. I was thinking (and had stated in an email to at least one friend) that 2011 was going to be an epochal year. I give it a 50-50 chance that when the historians write their PhDs in 60 or 70 years they will look at 2008 as a minor shock before the major crises hit in 2011. And I thought this before the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crises hit Japan. That just adds more strain to the system. I'm seeing a whole lot of "downside" risk this year, and no "upside" risk. And given that our economy still hasn't really recovered from the recession of TEN years ago, I think it won't take much to push us right over the edge of the cliff. So analyzing CBO budget projections just seems pointless.

And in case you don't believe me about not recovering from the recession at the start of the Bush II Presidency, just read the numbers and weep.

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